Scenario: A European wind developer has surveyed Vietnamese waters for three years, spending millions of dollars on wind measurement and environmental studies. It now faces a fork: keep spending to hold its position while the legal framework remains incomplete, or pull back and wait for clear policy at the risk of losing ground to rivals? This is the defining dilemma of offshore wind in Vietnam right now.
The legal framework: from “nonexistent” to “forming”
The biggest difference between offshore wind and every other industry in this series is the unfinished legal framework. Core issues — sea-area allocation, investor selection mechanisms, power purchase pricing, grid connection — are still working their way through implementing regulations. Investing now means buying a position in a policy-formation process, not a finished “policy product”.
This creates a paradox: policy risk is at its highest, yet this is also the phase when investors’ voices carry the most weight in consultations. Early developers typically engage deeply in policy forums, both to protect their interests and to shape the rules of the game.
Pricing: the survival question of every financial model
Every offshore wind financial model revolves around one variable: the power sale price over 20–25 years. Unlike solar, offshore wind demands very large capex and high financing costs, so a purchase price just a few percent below expectations can kill project viability. Investors should not base investment decisions on “reference prices” from other markets or figures circulating in the press.
The prudent strategy is to design the project around multiple price scenarios, determine your own breakeven price, and commit large capital only once the official pricing mechanism is issued. While waiting, spending should stay limited to surveys and project development — not equipment commitments.
The local supply chain: an opportunity for fellow travelers, not latecomers
Offshore wind needs deep-water ports, specialized installation vessels, steel-structure fabrication and subsea-cable plants. Vietnam has a shipbuilding and offshore oil-and-gas base that can partly convert, but current capacity cannot serve gigawatt scale. Equipment and technical-service investors arriving early — alongside pilot projects — will set the standards and partnerships for the entire later development cycle.
This is a “travel together” window, not a “come later” one: provide survey, engineering-consulting and marine-logistics services to projects under development, rather than waiting until projects operate.
Investment procedures: a project of special scale
Offshore wind projects involve very large capital and must go through high-level investment-policy approval under the Investment Law 143/2025/QH15 (effective 1 March 2026) before the IRC. They also touch on sea-area allocation, marine environmental impact assessment, defence and security, and national grid connection.
Reality check: the timeline from project proposal to a full legal package bankable for fundraising is measured in years, not months. Cash-flow planning must account for extended development spending with no revenue.
Recommended strategy: hold position at controlled cost
For investors already present: maintain project development at minimum effective level — keep survey permits, maintain regulator relationships, join policy consultations — but defer large capital commitments until the pricing mechanism and investor-selection mechanism are clear. For newcomers: 2026–2027 is a good time to start surveying and relationship-building, not the time to commit billions of dollars.
Frequently asked questions
Can foreign investors develop offshore wind projects in Vietnam?
Yes. The law does not bar foreign investors from offshore wind. Projects must, however, pass high-level investment-policy approval plus procedures relating to sea areas, defence and security, and the environment.
What is the current offshore wind power price?
There is no official, stable pricing mechanism for offshore wind at the time of writing. All circulating figures are references or proposals — investment decisions should not rely on them but await the official instrument.
Do offshore wind measurement surveys need permits?
Yes. Offshore survey activities involve sea-area management, maritime safety and potentially defence and security, so engage the competent authorities before deploying — do not proceed unilaterally.
Do offshore wind projects get tax incentives?
Renewable-energy projects may be considered for corporate income tax incentives under the Corporate Income Tax Law 67/2025/QH15 (effective 1 October 2025). The specific level is determined during project approval.
This article has been quality-reviewed by the FLAW AI Legal Council