Scenario: An energy fund receives a proposal for a 200MW green-hydrogen project in central Vietnam, pitched on “abundant sun and wind, so green hydrogen must work”. The investment committee is stuck on one simple, decisive question: who will buy the hydrogen? This article answers the buyer question — the factor deciding every green-hydrogen project right now.
The domestic market: no buyer paying a green premium yet
Vietnam’s green-hydrogen equation today is not about electrolysis technology or renewable resources — both exist. It is about demand: no domestic industry is ready to sign long-term hydrogen purchase contracts at prices covering production costs. Green steel, green fertilizer and hydrogen transport in Vietnam are all still at research stage, with no real orders.
The consequence: any commercial-scale project seeking viability in 2026–2027 must have export offtake or accept a pilot role. Modeling returns on “domestic demand will emerge” without contracts is gambling, not investing.
The export window: offtake is the only key
Potential markets — Japan, South Korea, the EU — all have hydrogen import strategies, but they buy through long-term offtake contracts with strict certification standards on “greenness” (renewable power sourcing, lifecycle emissions). The 2026–2027 window is open to developers who can sign binding offtake memoranda before committing electrolyser capital.
A reality to note: hydrogen transport costs (liquefaction, ammonia or LOHC) take a large share of the delivered price. Vietnam’s sun-and-wind advantage must be big enough to offset these logistics costs versus suppliers closer to consumption markets, such as Australia or the Middle East.
Pilot projects: positioning for the next cycle
For investors without offtake, the wise choice is a small pilot: hydrogen stations for buses, hydrogen blending into gas grids, or pilot-scale green ammonia. These need not break even immediately; their value is accumulated operating experience, real Vietnamese cost data, and regulator relationships — intangible assets deciding who wins the 2030+ commercial cycle.
The hydrogen legal framework is still being completed, so pilot projects are also a way to “learn” licensing for a new asset class together with regulators, creating favorable precedent for later large projects.
Technical and legal barriers
Technically, green hydrogen needs stable renewable power at low enough cost, high-efficiency electrolysis, and safe storage and transport solutions (hydrogen is highly flammable, with stringent safety demands). On land, projects need large areas for accompanying solar or wind if they want self-sufficient green power.
Legally, projects follow investment procedures under the Investment Law 143/2025/QH15 (effective 1 March 2026): IRC, then ERC under the Enterprise Law 59/2020/QH14. Hydrogen production and storage face tight chemical-safety and fire-prevention management. Exporting hydrogen or ammonia must meet the importing market’s certification standards — get advised on this from the start, not when the product is ready.
Recommendations by investor type
Developers with offtake relationships in Japan, Korea or the EU: move now — 2026–2027 is the golden moment to lock supply positions. Financial funds: participate only when the project has binding offtake and a clear price structure; otherwise this is a long-horizon venture bet to be priced accordingly. Domestic industrial firms: start with small pilots tied to your own decarbonization needs; do not jump into commercial production without buyers.
Frequently asked questions
Does green-hydrogen production in Vietnam need special licences?
Beyond the IRC and ERC, projects must meet chemical-safety and fire-prevention conditions for hydrogen production and storage — a high explosion-risk product. The sector-specific hydrogen framework is still being completed, so engage regulators early.
What certification is needed to export Vietnamese green hydrogen to the EU?
The EU applies strict standards defining “renewable hydrogen” (power sourcing, lifecycle emissions, additionality of renewable power). Investors must design projects to meet these criteria from the outset, because retrofitting after construction is very costly.
Can hydrogen be sold on the domestic market?
In principle yes, but in practice no industrial customer has signed a long-term commercial-price green-hydrogen purchase contract in Vietnam. All domestic-sale plans today are pilot-scale or future expectations.
Do green-hydrogen projects get tax incentives?
Renewable-energy and new-technology projects may be considered for corporate income tax incentives under the Corporate Income Tax Law 67/2025/QH15 (effective 1 October 2025). The specific level is determined during project approval.
This article has been quality-reviewed by the FLAW AI Legal Council